Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Is the recession over?

Is the recession over? Several writers have suggested that it is over. Here is a sample of what they are saying. Be warned though. less bad news does not imply good news. Also, note that the stock market is not a perfect guage for predicitng the the level of economic activity.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/19/markets/thebuzz/index.htm
http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/04/recovery-indicators-unemployment-opinions-columnists-recession.html
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2785

Here is an entry from the WSJ on the jobless recovery. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/08/04/secondary-sources-fed-watch-financial-pay-waitress-indicator/
Fed Watch: On Fed Watch, Tim Duy says the jobless recovery means the Fed will be on hold for a long time. “Incoming data continue to confirm the cyclical turn in the U.S. economy. But that cyclical turn is supported by a massive amount of government intervention, in and of itself a testament to the fragility of the recovery. The Fed will be in no rush to withdraw that liquidity — especially if a jobless recovery emerges. Indeed, it is easy to tell a story where the Fed holds rates near zero into 2011. That also means the Fed will not rock any boats. Thus, the jobless recovery is almost a dream come true for those trades dependent on easy Fed policy — which seem to be virtually all trades at the moment. Although there has been talk of the Fed acting preemptively to curtail bubbles, I am skeptical that any such action would be taken with U.S. unemployment staring at double-digits. And there certainly would be no rush to react if low U.S. interest rates fueled bubbles outside U.S. borders; that, after all, would be the responsibility of foreign policymakers. “

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